RACE TO WH
Our House Forecast projects the chance both parties have of winning the majority. It uses data-driven projections to predict the outcome of all 435 races. Every day, it runs 20,000 simulations of the election. In 2022, our forecast called 96.3% of House Races correctly. We came just one seat short of perfectly predicting the total number of seats the GOP would win (we predicted they would win 223 seats, and they finished with 222).
In 2022, Republicans fell short of their lofty expectations, but they still successfully flipped nine seats in the House, winning enough to secure a majority and the Speaker’s gavel. Now, they will have to defend it against Democrats, who have 214 seats after flipping George Santos’s seat in a special election. That’s just four short of the 218 seats they will need to take back control.
The Democratic Party will be targeting many of the 18 Congressional Districts that voted for President Biden in 2020 but went on to vote for a Republican in 2022. The Republican party had a proper red wave localized to California and New York, and they now will have to defend eleven seats that Biden won in those two states alone. The Republican party has its own slew of offensive opportunities spread across the country from Colorado to Michigan and Pennsylvania, and they’ll likely need to convert at least some of them to hold onto the House.
